SPRING MEETING - CO/ WY Chapter of the American Statistical Association
(Last updated April 15, 2005)
Okay - Final notice for the meeting. In addition to some material you
have seen before, this note contains information on the following.
Vislab Tour
Elections
Sign-in
Approximate Agenda and Abstracts
Snow?
#### Vislab
For those of you signed up to tour the Vislab. We will be meeting at
the main entrance to NCAR. At 11 a.m. we will walk down to the
facility together. I have already signed everyone in this group in.
If you arrive late, just check with the Security Desk.
#### Elections
At the meeting this year, several chapter positions need to be
elected. These positions include President-elect, treasurer and
chapter rep. If you wish be more involved with the chapter, please
consider running for a position.
#### Sign in
At the security desk, there will be a sign in sheet for those
attending the meeting. Please sign it. We will be meeting in the
main meeting room. From the main entrance, the room is straight
ahead, up the half flight of stairs and to your left.
#### Approximate Agenda
11 - 11:30 Vislab Tour
11:30 - 12:30 Lunch available in cafeteria
12:30 - 12:45 Sign-in / Registration
12:45 - 2:20 First Session
2:20 - 2:40 Coffee and Tea Break
2:40 - 4:30 Second Session
4:30 - Refreshments - Beer, wine, soda and snacks. (Yes, you read that correctly, free beer.)
#### Snow ?
In the increasingly unlikely chance there is snow next Friday, we will
follow the following policy. If NCAR is open, the meeting will be
on. If it is cancelled, I will send out an announcement Friday
morning.
#### Questions? Contact Matt Pocernich at pocernic@ucar.edu
###################################
## Abstracts and General Information##
####################################
*Invited Speakers*
In addition to the student presentation, the following speakers have
been invited to present some interesting research.
+ Shahar Boneh (Metro) "Estimating the prediction function and the
number of unseen objects in sampling with replacement".
Following the model of the Coupon-Collector Problem, suppose we have N
samples from an unknown number of distinct coupons. Based on this, we want
to estimate how many coupons we have not sampled yet.
Additionally, we want to estimate the 'prediction function',
namely, the number of additional
coupons that we expect to see if we take an addition K samples, for any
value of k. We will also show a continuous-time extension to this
model as well as applications.
+ Dorin Dringnei (NCAR - GSP) "Fitting Climate Models and Observed
Climate Data."
Methods of design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE) will be
implemented in a procedure for estimating three climate
parameters. Observed and model surface temperature data will be
used to find the best estimates
of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, the net aerosol forcing and the
ocean vertical thermal diffusivity, and to characterize their
uncertainty.
+ Nels Grevstad - (Metro) "Estimating the Sample Size Parameter n in
the Binomial Distribution."
The need to estimate the sample size parameter $n$ in the binomial
distribution arises in many practical problems, such as estimating
wildlife population sizes based on sample counts. Attempts to find
reasonable estimators can be traced back to the early 1900s, when
the method of moments estimator was proposed. But both the method
of moments and maximum likelihood estimators suffer serious
shortcomings in performance, including a highly unstable behavior.
This talk will detail some of the difficulties that arise when
estimating $n$, present results of some attempts that have been made
to overcome those difficulties, and discuss a new Bayesian method
that uses a Jeffrey prior modified to handle integer parameters.
+ Scott Urquhart (CSU) "Statistics and the Clean Water Act".
The clean Water Act ov 1972 has lead to substantial improvement in
the condition of our nations waters. Many relevant statistical
issues were ignored during the first 25-30 years of the act's
implantation. As that perspective changed in recent years, glaring
deficiencies in statistical theory and applications, especially in
the realm of complex surveys of ecological resources, have become
apparent. Several EPA-funded activities have conducted research and
implementations to overcome these limitations, including STARMAP at
CSU.
*Tour of NCAR's visualization lab*
We are very happy to be back at NCAR's Mesa Lab. For those interested
in arriving before lunch, one can attend a demonstration of NCAR's Data
visualization Lab at 11 am. The data visualization lab allows for the 3-D
projection of data. Yes, you get too wear dorky 3-D glasses. If you
are interested attending this, please contact Matt Pocernich again
by April 15th.
* Lunch -- While the meeting doesn't start until 12:30, those wishing
to arrive a bit early can join us for lunch at 11:30. NCAR has a cafeteria
with decent food and amazing views. A table will be reserved in the
cafeteria for us to eat together.
*Student Presentations*
This year, there will be two categories for the student
presentations as well as two prizes. The categories are based on
whether or not a person is in a PhD program. Oral
presentations will be between 10 - 15 minutes, based on the number of
participants. The prize will be $75 for each category.
Presentations will be judged equally in the following three
categories.
Content- content includes the significance, innovation, analysis and
conclusion of the presentation.
Organization- this includes completeness, logic and layout.
Presentation- this includes the delivery, knowledge and visual aids.
Students wishing to compete in this competition should notify
Matt Pocernich at pocernic@ucar.edu with a very brief description of
the presentation before April 8th.
*Maurice Davies Awards*
Maurice Davies Awards will be presented to students from each school.
This award, named after the first president of the CO/ WY Chapter of
ASA, comes with a cash prize for those winners who attend the meeting to
accept their awards.
*Chapter Elections and Issues*
As part of the spring meeting, annual elections are conducted. This
year we are needing to elect a new president-elect, treasurer and
chapter representative. If you are interested in getting more
involved, now is your chance.
Additionally, the executive board has been working hard this year to
reach out to members who seldom attend any events. We will be taking
a few minutes at the meeting to solicit input as to how the chapter
can be improved.
Thanks,
M
Matt Pocernich
NCAR - Research Applications Program
303-497-8312
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