FALL 1995
VOLUME 27, NUMBER 2
NOVEMBER 1995
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OFFICERS FOR 1995-1996
President
Jack Wang
NIST
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80303
(303)497-3843
jwang@bidr.nist.gov
Treasurer
Anna Baron
Preventive Medicine & Biometrics
University of Colorado
Health Sciences Center
4200 E. Ninth Ave., Box B-119
Denver, CO 80262-0001
(303)270-417Q FAX: 270-3183
anna.baron@uchsc.edu
ASA Council of Chapters
Karen Kafadar Representative
Dept of Mathematics, Box 170
University of Colorado - Denver
P.O. Box 173364
Denver, CO 80217-3364
(303)556-2547 FAX: 556-8550
kk@tiger.cudenver.edu
President-Elect
Ken Gerow
P.O. Box 3332
Department of Statistics
University of Wyoming
Laramie, WY 82071
(307)766-6600 FAX: 766-3927
gerow@uwyo.edu
Secretary
Barbara Brown
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P .0. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
(303)497-8468 FAX: 497-8401
bgb@ncar.ucar.edu
Newsletter Editor
Tom Gatliffe
Statistical Applications, M/S T130J
Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site
P.O. Box 464
Golden, CO 80402-0464
(303)966-6548 FAX: 499-1179
gatliffe@csn.org
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1995 Fall Chapter Meeting: Thursday, November 16
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The ASA Colorado-Wyoming Chapter Annual Fall Meeting will be held on
Thursday November 16, 1995 in Boulder, CO from 5:30 pm to 6:20 pm at
the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Main Seminar Room
Combining Information
A talk by
Mark Berliner, Ph.D., NCAR and Ohio State University
6:45 pm: General discussion and no-host dinner following the talk.
Healthy Habits Restaurant, 4760 Baseline Rd. (Near Foothills Parkway)
Abstract:
"Combining Information" offers numerous and challenging problems for statisticians.
I will discuss some of these. A variety of examples will be considered, primarily
from the Bayesian point of view. First, I will review approaches to the estimation
of physical constants. Next the problem of combining experimental results for
robust Bayesian testing of sharp null hypotheses is considered. Lower bounds on the
posterior probability of the null are obtained based on classes of priors. It is
suggested that plots of these lower bounds, as functions of the prior probability,
provide a useful summary of results for appraising evidence. An example involving
the combination of experiments concerning the value of aspirin usage for heart attack
patients is presented. The discussion includes comparison with classical p-values
associated with meta-analysis. Finally, time permitting, notions of combining
information in large scale physical modeling settings, such as those arising in Earth
Sciences, are reviewed.
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News of Members
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Colorado State University
Visiting Faculty at CSU
Richard Tweedie passed along the following
collection of notes concerning CSU activities:
1995 sees the continuation of the visit of Professor Murray Rosenblatt, who spoke to the
Chapter at the Fall meeting of 1994. He will continue his work in the Department of Statistics
with Richard Davis and others.
For the academic year 1995-1996, the Department is also joined by Professor Robert Lund,
on leave from the University of Georgia. Robert Lund has interests in time series analysis and
Markov chain models, and in their applications in climatology. He is pursuing the former
working with Richard Davis and Richard Tweedie, and is following up the latter by visiting
NCAR for discussions on the use of periodic time series models in the prediction of climate
change and related areas.
CSU Faculty on leave
Professor Yi-ching Yao is on a two-year leave at Academia Sinica, where he will pursue
his research interests in probability theory. Professors J.N. Srivastava and Phil Chapman are
on sabbatical leave for the Fall semester of 1995; the former is furthering his interests in
experimental design at the University of California in Berkeley, and the latter is working on
bootstrap methods and also on methods of statistical consulting. Ron Butler of CSU spent the
first half of this year on sabbatical leave in the Statistics Department of the University of
Oxford, U.K.
NIST Postdoctoral Position to CSU Graduate
Dr Brad Biggerstaff, who graduated in May from the Department of Statistics, has accepted
a postdoctoral position at NIST in Boulder. He will be developing on a number of areas of his
research, which involved rigorous methods of consolidating information over multiple
studies or experiments in a meta-analysis framework.
Establishment of CASE (Center for Applied Statistical Expertise)
Over 1994-95 the Department of Statistics has set up a Center for Applied Statistical
Expertise (CASE) which will help us formalize our interactions with industry, business, and
government.
In the past, the Department of Statistics has carried out such activities on an informal basis,
with individual faculty members assisting on problems from the region, the state, and
sometimes nationwide. This Department, one of the top 20 in the US, has a wide variety of
skills and sees CASE as a vehicle to make them more widely available. This benefits those
around us, and it also keeps us closely in touch with the real world problems that are vital in
shaping our teaching and our research and keeping these relevant.
Although still in its formative stages, CASE is already supplying expertise and advice to
projects ranging from forest growth analysis to the investigation of factors affecting
schizophrenia in Colorado, from the sampling of rare species in the Pacific Northwest to the
on-line analysis of leakage in oil tanks across the USA.
Those wishing to discuss the activities of CASE should call Richard Tweedie
(970-491-6786), Jim zumBrunnen (970491 6882) or Jennifer Hoeting (970-491 2897)
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More from C.S.U.
Tom Boardman of CSU and Boardman Associates sent
the following note concerning their recent trip to Korea
In August, Eileen and I attended the "International Conference on Statistical Methods and
Statistical Computing for Quality and Productivity Improvement" in Seoul, Korea. This was a
satellite session for the ISI Conference in Beijing the next week. We were invited participants.
With a heavy turnout of Koreans there must have been over 450 in attendance. I spoke on some
research that my post doc, Jun Kim, and I had completed on use of burn-in procedures in
reliability assessment. Eileen and I also had a chance to travel around Seoul with Jun Kim and his
wife Seon. Great fun! Korea is a very interesting and cosmopolitan country. Korea made a pitch
to host the ISI conference in 2001. I am not sure whether it was accepted or not. Tom
Thomas J. Boardman, PhD
Professor of Statistics & Director, Center
for Quality & Productivity Improvement
Colorado State University
B268 Clark Building
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877
(970) 491-5721
Consulting Partner
Boardman Associates
1316 Windjammer Cove
Fort Collins, CO 80524-2202
(970) 484-5767
(970) 493-6709 Fax
(970) 491-7895 Fax boardman@lamar.colostate.edu
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Colorado Cooperative Ken Burnham sent the following
Fish & Wildlife Research Unit e-mail earlier this month
Not much worthy news from myself here at the Coop Unit. A very recent publication:
Burnham, K. P., G. C. White and D. R. Anderson. 1995. Model selection strategy~
in the analysis of capture-recapture data. Biometrics 51:888-898.
David Anderson (Unit Leader) and I did go to South Africa in late June this summer to teach
1 week workshop on Distance Sampling; it was hosted by the Statistics Department at the
University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg (near Durban, SA). After that I visited 4 game parks in SA
that all use distance sampling in their programs to estimate abundance of the animals they actively
manage for; I saw lots of big, wild animals up close.
The Ecological Society of America met in Utah at the end of July; I went and spoke on a type
of abuse of statistical power.
The Wildlife Society met in Portland, Oregon in mid-Sept.; I went and spoke on meta-analysis
and its potential in wildlife research.
Next week (Oct. llth-13th), we are anticipating a short visit by Dr. Paul Yip, Statistics
Department, U. of Hong Kong. Ken Burnham
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National Center for
Atmospheric Research Rick Katz sends along the following:
Mark Berliner, Professor in the Department of Statistics at Ohio State University, has taken a
two-year leave of absence to serve as Leader of the newly created Geophysical Statistics Project at
the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. His research interests include Bayesian
inference and statistics of nonlinear dynamic systems.
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Editor's Note As you can see, several members provided significant news items for this
issue. I would like to carry as much news of the activities of chapter mem-
bers as possible. Anything from little "news-y bits" up to items of major importance to the
statistical community are always welcome. Although the preferred input format would be ASCII
-text via e-mail to my Internet address or Word/Word-Perfect for DOS or Windows on disk, I am
happy to accept input in any form that doesn't rely totally on my imperfect memory (such as
verbal transmission) at any time before a newsletter publication. I will endeavor to notify
members via e-mail prior to planned publication dates but only about thirty percent of the members
currently have e-mail addresses on file with the chapter secretary. Please help us complete our
listings by sending a note to Barb Brown at bgb E?ncar.ucar.edu, cc: gatliffezE?csn.org.
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Chapter Dues
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Colorado-Wyoming Chapter annual dues are
$5.00 per year for regular members and $2.00
per year for student members. You may pay
chapter dues through ASA Headquarters along
with your society dues, OR you may pay them
directly to the chapter treasurer. Note: National
membership is not a prerequisite for membership
and participation in chapter activities.
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CO-WY Area Position Announcements
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Hewlett-Packard: The Hardcopy Division (scanners) of Hewlett-Packard in Greeley,
CO is seeking a contract statistician/scientific programmer for a position with the quality
department. The successful candidate must have a master's degree in statistics, operations
research, IE, or other technical discipline with a strong background in multi-variate analysis,
univariate SPC, C+ + programming, and manufacturing. Knowledge of SAS would be a plus
but is not necessary. The candidate will implement real-time multi-variate and univariate SPC
methods in the manufacturing process, and the software must be integrated with the current
CIM system. Most of the project will be done on DOS systems in C+ +, but the ongoing
upgrade of HP's data collection and analysis system for manufacturing will occur on UNIX
based systems with SAS as the package of choice. We are seeking someone to begin work as
soon as possible. Anyone who is interested should contact:
Dr. Douglas Mader
Hewlett-Packard
Phone: (970) 350-4074
Greeley Hardcopy Division Fax: (970) 350-5382
700 71st Avenue
Greeley, CO 80634
e-Mail: doug_mader@hp-greeley-om2.om.hp.com
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Professional Moves, Changes, & Notes
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Al Palachek has left Rocky Flats, taking a position with Beffis Labs in Pittsburgh, PA.
JoD Splett has left NIST and moved to Minneapolis, MN, with her husband Del. JoD now has
a position with the Deluxe Corporation. Del recently left Rocky Flats and has taken a position
with Fair Isaac.
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ASA COLORADO-WYOMING CHAPTER WINTER MEETING
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DATA VISUALIZATION, META-ANALYSIS AND BAYESIAN METHODS
IN MEDICINE AND EPIDEMIOLOGY
A One-Day Symposium
Organized by the Department of Statistics at Colorado State University
and the Department of Mathematics at CU-Denver
January 19, 1996
9:30 AM - 5:00 PM
Room 640, Tivoli Building
Auroria Campus, CU-Denver
(off Speer Blvd. near downtown Denver)
The use of meta-analysis (the formal evaluation of multiple study information) is exploding, both
in clinical study assessment and epidemiology. This seminar will present a number of areas of this
methodology and related subjects, and in particular will focus on:
* Graphical presentation of both spatial distribution and meta-analytic results of multiple studies
* Random effects and Bayesian methods for ml ta-analysis
* Assessment of publication bias and quality levels in studies
Speakers are expected to include
Bill duMouchel, Columbia University
Karen Kafadar, CU-Denver
Kerrie Mengersen, Queensland University of Technology
Sharon-Lise Normand, Harvard Medical School
Randy Swaim, Tri-Ethnic Center, Colorado State University
Richard Tweedie, Colorado State University
plus others from Denver and Colorado State University
Cost of the symposium is $20 for non-students and the ASA Chapter will fund attendance of
students: this will cover costs of meeting rooms and of morning and afternoon refreshments.
To register contact the co-organizers:
Professor Richard Tweedie
Department of Statistics
Colorado State University
Fort Collins CO 80524
Phone: 970 491 6786
email: tweedie@stat.colostate.edu
Professor Karen Kafadar
Mathematics Department
CU-Denver
P.O. Box 173364
Denver 80217-3364
Phone: 303-556-2547
email: kk@tiger.cudenver.edu
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Report from the Council of Chapters Annual Business Meeting
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- Wednesday, August 16, 1995, Orlando, FL.
Reported by Karen Kafadar, CO-WY Chapter Representative.
Note: CO-WY Chapter is in District 6 - Vice chair: B. Alan Johnson (National Marine Fisheries Service,
Kodiak, Alaska)
Information transmitted from ASA National Headquarters to the Chapter representatives included the following
1. Nominations Committee, chaired by Dwight Brock (National Institute of Aging) solicits suggestions of persons
interested in serving on the Council of Chapters. Incidentally, Dwight has, or plans to have, an opening for a
Staff Fellow in his Biometry Branch at NIA, so direct replies to him.
2. Michael Kutner announced some sort of insurance coverage that has been extended to chapters. (Detail6
probably in Amstat News)
3. Gretchen Cloud is coordinating the International Science and Energy Fair being held in Tucson, AZ. Contact
her for info.
4. Linda Young is in charge of the Annual Statistics Competition. No awards were made last year in the 7-9 year
or high school categories, indicating the need for more outreach and more activity in the Adopt-a-School
Program.
5. Marlene Egger has been organizing a traveling Statistics Course. " These are materials for 2-3 hour courses
on topics of interest to masters-level people. She needs people to suggest topics and work on materials. The
basic format for &e course would involve a Saturday morning or afternoon, or a weekday evening. Participants
would be charged a nominal fee ($25-$50.
6. Contact Joy Moreno for &e National Teachers Network.
7. Kathleen Wille (Proctor & Gamble) prepared a report on &e ASA Annual Survey of Chapter Activities in 1994.
Contact Karen Kafadar for a copy.
8. ASA now has a home page on &e WWW. See Amstat News for details. The Electronics Communication
Committee will meet to discus6 common format for Chapters and Sections to include &their own home page
under ASA's. (The name is "amstat" because "asa"~ was already taken.)
9. ASA needs Chapter help in recruiting more Corporate Members.
10. Ray Waller (retired from Sandia) is &e new ASA Executive Director.
11. The first Advanced Placement Test in Statistics will be administered May 6, 1997. Hopefully &is will help
build rapport with &e school system6.
12. The former ASA Treasurer, David Morganstein, has been replaced by David Sylvedre.
13. A committee has been formed to deal with& ASA's perceived lack of responsiveness6 to applied practitioners and
non-PhD statisticians who do not publish in JASA. A meeting of &is committee was held in Orlando and
included 26 applied statisticians and 15 ASA Board Members. There will be an open meeting in Chicago to
discuss their needs and concerns.
14. More outreach activities by &e Chapters should be encouraged, especially contact with &e local schools.
15. The COPSS Speaker Program can be a source of speakers d local colleges or Chapter meetings. Contact Mary
Gray or Ingram Olkin (Stanford).
16. A last year's Council of Chapters meeting (Karen Kafadar has a copy of the minutes) Mitch Gail suggested that
the Council of Chapters continue to think of new outreach opportunities beyond the Adopt-a-School and
Quantitative Literacy Programs. Some of the possible activities discussed included: Inviting business people to
Chapter meetings; contacting the ASA office regarding the availability of Victor Cohn as a Chapter meeting
speaker; holding a communications skills workshop at a Chapter meeting; and acknowledging and welcoming
new attendees to meetings, encouraging their participation.
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