ABSTRACT

Inferring process from pattern is a long-standing goal in landscape ecology and epidemiology, but is limited by data availability and parameter identifiability.  We will review a broad conceptual framework for the analysis of data associated with the spread of disease in time and space, illustrating a continuum of perspectives ranging from ecology to public health surveillance and identify areas needing further development.  Using this framework, we explore expanded roles for statistical techniques in mathematical models of the spread of raccoon rabies in the northeastern United States, focusing on assessments of fit for mathematical models of disease dynamics and exploration of the phylogeography of pathogens in wildlife populations.