Geostatistical Project, NCAR and Department of Statistics, CSU Mini Seminar Series

 

A Spatial Model for Precipitation Occurrence, Sarah Streett

Monday, 17 November 2003

3:10PM - 3:35 PM

232 Wagar
  
ABSTRACT

Stochastic weather generators play an important role in the assessment of climate on agriculture.  Of particular importance is the model used for precipitation occurrence since the remaining weather variables are often modeled conditionally based on this event.  An observation driven model for occurrence is introduced and results depicting the model's capability of generating realistic precipitation patterns are shown.  Spatial extensions of the model are also discussed.

 

 

Optimal Interporation (OI) Analysis of High-latitude Ionospheric

Electrodynamic Variables, Tomoko Matsuo

 

Monday, 17 November 2003

3:35PM – 4:00 PM

232 Wagar

 

ABSTRACT

The Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure, developed by Richmond and Kamide [1988], carries out an objective multivariate functional analysis of high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamic variables: electric fields, electric potential, ionospheric currents, and magnetic field perturbations.  In this talk some technical improvements upon the traditional implementation of the OI method are demonstrated for the storm period of January 9-11, 1997.  Improvements include the use of the set of 11 Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of Matsuo et al. [2002] as basis functions, and also the application of of the maximum-likelihood method [Dee, 1995] for the error covariance parameter estimation.

 

BREAK:  4:00pm – 4:10pm

 

 

Extreme Value Theory in (Hourly) Precipitation, Uli Schneider

 

Monday, 17 November 2003

4:10pm – 4:35pm

232 Wagar

 

ABSTRACT

This project revolves around studying precipitation extremes.  One of the goals is to assess the impact of hourly precipitation extremes to flood hazards, another long term goal will be to make inference from large scale climate model output to precipitation extremes happening on a more local level.  As a starting point we apply tools from extreme value theory to several rain gage stations in the Colorado Front Range with the intent of improving precipitation atlas used to determine flood hazards.

 

Off-line Transport Models and The Carbon Cycle, Reinhard Furrer

 

Monday, 17 November 2003

4:35pm – 5:00pm

232 Wagar

 

ABSTRACT

To understand the present and future climate it is indispensable to have a precise description of the carbon cycle, aerosols, particle matter etc. The carbon cycle itself  depends strongly on anthropogenic activities such as the change of land-use and emissions from fossil fuels and cement production (sources of carbon). On the other hand the carbon is up-taken via the ocean and respiration of green matter (sinks). It is impossible to quantify precisely large scale sinks and sources of carbon; but they can be estimated indirectly through carbon concentration measurements, defining an inverse problem. This project focuses on the statistical issues related to this inverse problem. The central motor of an inverse problem is a forward operator, more specifically, an off-line transport model.  In this short talk I will illustrate the basics of transport models with respect to the carbon cycle. Several statistical questions and problems in the context of the carbon cycle will be outlined

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

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College of Natural Sciences


 

 

 

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