"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein

Seminar Announcement

Spatial Hierarchical Modeling in Comparing Extreme Precipitation Generated by Regional Climate Models

Erin M. Schliep, M.S. Candidate, Department of Statistics, Colorado State University.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

10:00 am, 223 Weber


Using a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model, we analyze precipitation output from six regional climate models (RCMs). The primary advantage of this approach is that the model is designed to borrow strength across location by means of a spatial model on the parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution. Being that the data we analyze have a relatively short time span for characterizing extreme behavior but have great spatial coverage, this is particularly important. The hierarchical model we employ is computationally efficient as we have data from nearly 12000 locations. The objective of our analysis is to compare the extreme precipitation generated by these RCMs.

Although the RCMs produce similar spatial patterns for the 100-year return level, our results show that their characterizations of extreme precipitation are quite different. We also found differences in the spatial patterns for the point estimates of the extreme value index. These differences, however, may not be significant due to the uncertainty associated with estimating this parameter

Advisory Committee:
Dr. Dan Cooley, Advisor
Dr. Jennifer Hoeting, Committee Member
Dr. Scott Denning, Atmospheric Science, Outside Member